Sports Gambling and the Potential Pathway to Targeted Violence
Is it only a matter of time?
Sports gambling has gone mainstream since the 2018 Supreme Court decision that allowed for legalization by individual States. Thirty-eight States and the District of Columbia now allow it along with event contract sites like Kalshi that allow you to risk money predicting the outcome of a sporting event in all 50 states (just don’t call the latter gambling, I guess). The American Gaming Association, a national trade group, estimated that $1.4 billion would be legally wagered on the Super Bowl this year, and another $3 billion on March Madness. There has also been extensive news coverage of the increase of gambling in the NY Times, Washington Post, on John Oliver’s television show, Michael Lewis’s podcast, and elsewhere. This is in addition to the countless ads you see on TV, the internet, at games, and beyond.
All of these outlets point out the threats to sports integrity, the financial strain that comes from gambling losses, the targeting of young men by advertisers, how winners are limited from betting and losers are enticed to continue losing, and how athletes are harassed by losing bettors. But for some reason they stop there. Even policy makers who are focused on countering some of the more predatory behavior by betting platforms stop at the traditional financial and regulatory-related issues and fail to look at security.
This issue is the crux of the whole newsletter and is a coming security threat that is currently being ignored. Last year a study released by researchers at Fairleigh Dickinson University showed that 10% of young men in the U.S. “show behavior that indicates a gambling problem.” Among the broader population the number was only 3%. When men of all ages were asked to indicate whether they had engaged in problematic gambling behaviors like borrowing money to gamble about a quarter said yes, but for men under the age of 30 that number nearly doubled.
As that specific cohort of men is sought out by the gaming industry, a subset of them will engage in problematic or irresponsible behavior and will end up likely losing their money and in debt. The John Oliver story referenced above features interviews with some anecdotal evidence on this point. Once in debt these young men are vulnerable to many outside forces—but this is where the stories referenced above stop. You cannot ignore what happens next in this cycle though if you are truly interested in responsible gambling initiatives.
Will the losing gamblers turn to illegal, unregulated sports books where they may gamble on credit, further plunging them into debt? Could they harass or threaten the athletes or teams that they misguidedly blame for their gambling losses? Could they attempt to take drastic measures as a spectator to alter a sporting event to make good on a loss or ensure winning a bet they’ve placed to recover losses?
This may sound hyperbolic or like the plot to a Hollywood movie, but let’s take a look at some facts and some recent events. To start, in 2023 there were several news stories, about golf events where gamblers attempted to interfere with athletes on the course to increase their chances of a payday. Moving beyond that anecdotal evidence, an NIH study from 2014 found that in general there is a strong correlation between financial debt and crime. More recently, researchers at the University of Oregon found that home team upset losses in cities with an NFL team correlated to a 10% increase in domestic violence. And the effects were even more pronounced in states where mobile betting was legalized, in locations where higher bets were placed, and even for teams who were on a winning streak. The last bit of relevant news is not necessarily gambling related but shows a workable playbook. In 2024 and early 2025 an organized crime ring broke into the homes of high-profile athletes at times the criminals knew they would be away—when they had games.
One other compounding element is something that researchers at the University of Nebraska at Omaha and Chapman University have been tracking for nearly a year now. Threats against public officials are on the rise across the country. They found that between 2103 and 2016 there was an average of 38 federal charges involving threats to public officials per year. Between 2017 and 2023 that number nearly doubled to 62 per year. When taken together with the data produced by the NCAA about social media threats to their athletes, the picture becomes quite clear. This is especially true for college athletes who are so accessible on campus, who’s aggregate rosters are far greater than professional teams, and who work at institutions that often do not or cannot invest as much in personal or digital security as professional teams.
More and more threats start in the digital domain and then quickly move to the real world. This pattern is common to many non-criminal or non-violent aspects of our lives these days so the pattern and possibility should not come as a shock to anyone. What is surprising to me is the lack of awareness from sports leagues, teams, their partners in the online gambling businesses, and the federal government. As policymakers debate important issues around taxation, fairness, and responsible gambling initiatives they need to add security issues to their discussions. It shouldn’t take a gambler actually trying to harm an athlete or a fan for action to be taken.
Countless young men are on the precipice of entering a potential cycle of violence that will start with sports gambling. The stakeholders with an ability to prevent that violence from happening should focus a little less on the revenue stream and a little more on the threat stream.
If you are looking for help understanding emerging threats related to gambling or other industries, how the government (especially Congress) works, writing content about this topic or more I have a consultancy and I’d love to help you. I work with clients in a variety of sectors and look forward to working with you. Please reach out to discuss any of your issues at WeinStrategyLab@pm.me.